Iowa State vs Kansas – Expert Picks and Predictions

Kansas vs. Iowa State Basketball: A Matchup of Giants

Right off the bat, both teams are phenomenal: 12-3 KU and 14-1 Iowa State. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10, and Kansas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10. But what stands out to me about these two teams is KU’s 1-14 to the under, so clearly, there’s been a lot of value in betting the under in their games. What do we do in this one tonight?

Kansas’ Unders: A Streak to Watch

I actually used Kansas under, so thanks for taking away some of my fire there by sharing that record. They’re off a win against Cincinnati, and that game was 54 to 40—that’s not a halftime score, folks, 54 to 40 was the final score against Cincinnati. You mentioned the 1-4 over/under record for Kansas, with 13 straight unders. It’s important to know that when you’re looking at ATS streaks or over/under streaks, if your average margin of cover is a point or two, there’s much randomness in there—it’s basically flipping a coin. They make the last shot, or they don’t.

Defensive Mastery: Kansas’ Unders by the Numbers
Kansas’s last 13 games that have all gone under have done so by 12 points per game—that’s a massive number. Iowa State at home may be the best team in college basketball right now. I had them nowhere near being this good—they’re 14-1, with their only loss to Auburn. Auburn is the number one team in the country right now, and that loss was by two points in a neutral setting.

Iowa State Basketball’s Dominance at Home
This year, Iowa State at home is particularly impressive. I’m going to look at the total here. Kansas is 2-7 over/under at home, but when you throw out a couple of games as a favorite of 36 points or more, they’re 0-6 over/under at home and have failed to cover by 10.7 points per game.

Balanced Scoring Powers Iowa State Basketball
A couple of other things I like about this Iowa State team: five players average double digits. What does that mean? When you try to scheme against Iowa State, you can’t try to stop one player or even two. If all five starters are legitimate scorers, it gives you a lot of leeway where you don’t need one player to get hot. The player that catches fire that game can lead the team to victory.

Kansas Relies on Limited Scoring Options
By the way, Kansas only has two players that average double digits. They are quite young—they’re an experienced team overall, but they do have some newness with some new players. I look at this and say it’s simple for me: I am going to go under the total. I like the under for the first half even a little bit more, and I may actually load this as a client release.

Kansas as an Underdog: A Rarity
I haven’t finished my final process of analyzing it, but someone I talked to last night said, “Oh my God, you don’t see Kansas as a dog very often. There’s incredible value in taking the Jayhawks as a dog.” Well, let me quantify that: as a conference underdog since 2021, Kansas is 3-9 straight up and only 4-7 against the spread.

Big 12 Underdog Trends Point to the Under

So again, you think there’s good value for Kansas being an underdog in the Big 12—a conference they’ve dominated over the last decade—but it hasn’t come to fruition. When they are a legitimate dog, there’s a reason for it. And by the way, when Kansas is a Big 12 dog, their last 11 games have had three overs and 11 unders. All signs point to the under here.

Success with Iowa State Basketball and Other Bets

Again, what do you have to promote for our clients? Well, you know I had a 5% NFL teaser that just came down because of a line move. Take a look: I’m number two in profit over the last 30 days. It’s been an incredible run. I do have a college basketball 4% best bet up and available now. I sincerely thank everyone who was on board for my $5 5% winner last night on the Kentucky Wildcats. It’s been a great six weeks, and I’m just looking to continue that stretch.