Asteroid on a Collision Course? Neil deGrasse Tyson Weighs In
December 22, 2032โmark your calendars. Not for a holiday party or a big game, but because NASA has identified this date as a potential doomsday scenario.
The culprit? Asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock that, at one point, had the highest recorded chance of impact in history. When first spotted back in December 2024, NASA calculated a 3.1% chance that it could collide with Earth. Thatโs a terrifyingly high probability in asteroid terms.
But before you start prepping for the apocalypse, thereโs good news. New calculations have drastically reduced the risk to just 0.28%. So, should we still be worried?
To break it all down, we turn to renowned astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson, who assures us that while this asteroid isnโt likely to hit, itโs a wake-up call we shouldnโt ignore.
Why Do the Numbers Keep Changing?
Tyson explains that the reason the risk started high and then plummeted is simple: Weโre still learning about the asteroidโs orbit.
โWhen you first discover an asteroid, you only have a tiny segment of its total path around the Sun,โ he explains. โSo early predictions come with a lot of uncertainty. But as we gather more data, that uncertainty shrinks, and the odds of impact either go to 100% (we’re doomed) or 0% (false alarm).โ
And in this case? The odds are trending downโwhich is a good thing.
Should We Build an Asteroid Defense System?
Even though this particular asteroid seems to be backing off, Tyson argues that itโs still a perfect reminder that we need a plan.
โThis is the universe sending a warning shot across our bow,โ he says. โWhy not take this moment to prepare? We donโt want to be the only intelligent species with a space program that fails to stop its own extinction.โ
He jokes that if the dinosaurs had NASA, they would have deflected the asteroid that wiped them outโand theyโd probably still be here instead of us.
What Happens If an Asteroid Hits?
So, letโs say the worst happens. Whatโs the damage?
Well, at around 50 meters across, Asteroid 2024 YR4 isnโt a planet killer, but itโs still dangerous.
- If it hits land, it could flatten an entire city, leaving behind a mile-wide crater.
- If it hits water, it could trigger massive tsunamis, depending on the location.
- If it breaks up in the atmosphere, it could still cause an explosion powerful enough to shatter windows for milesโlike the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013.
That said, most of Earth is covered in oceans or uninhabited land, meaning the chances of it hitting a major city are pretty low.
Can We Stop an Asteroid?
Actually, yes! NASA successfully tested asteroid deflection technology with the DART mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). In 2022, they deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to change its trajectoryโand it worked.
This means that if we spot an asteroid early enough, we could nudge it off course before it becomes a threat. The problem? We need to spot them in time.
Final Verdict: Should We Worry?
With the risk dropping from 3.1% to 0.28%, Tyson says we can officially kiss this asteroid goodbye.
But the bigger message remains: This wonโt be the last asteroid scare. The best thing we can do? Stay vigilant, keep scanning the skies, and make sure weโre ready for the real threat when it comes.
Until then, maybe keep December 22, 2032 on your radarโjust in case.
