At what levels to buy in Nifty50 Bank

What Should I Watch in Nifty Today?

Good morning! If you’re strategizing for Nifty50 and Nifty Bank today, here’s what you need to know to navigate the market effectively. Let’s break it down step by step.

Nifty50 Overview and Strategy

The market mood has been somewhat choppy recently. While the index has shown minor pullbacks, broader trends are hinting at some resistance levels. On Friday, Nifty50 dipped by about 50–60 points before sliding further, eventually losing around 170 points by the close.

A good strategy for today would be to assess the pullback levels. Last week, we observed that a pullback occurred near the 232 levels and climbed about 150 points before losing steam. Similar patterns could emerge today as well, especially around the option writers’ zones.

Key Market Insights

Historical Patterns:
Forget about what happened over the past one month or even four months. This week is unique because it’s the expiry week, which often brings counter-trend moves. These shifts can assist or reverse existing trends, so tread carefully.
Shorting Behavior:
The market currently has a lot of short positions. However, it’s tough to say if these will create selling pressure or lead to short-covering rallies. Historical data isn’t providing clear indications this time.
FII & DII Data:
Institutional activity paints an important picture:
- Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have shown reduced selling but are still active in the cash market.
- Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have sold about ₹2,500 crores, indicating some bearish pressure.
- FIIs covered 11,000 short contracts while creating 7,000 calls, which suggests a mixed stance but hints at some optimism.

Nifty Levels to Watch

Support Zones:
- 22,971: This was last week’s swing low. A break below this level could push the market further down to 22,910, 22,845, or even 22,806.
- Below 22,806, short trades could intensify, so watch this level carefully.
Resistance Zones:
- 23,232–23,300: Call writers are strongly positioned here, making this a tough level to break.
- 23,412–23,337: If the market sees a pullback rally, these levels could be tested.
Option Writers’ Activity:
- There’s strong open interest (OI) at the 23,000 call level, which indicates bearish pressure. Meanwhile, put writers at the same level have started exiting their positions, further weakening support.

Bank Nifty Strategy

Bank Nifty is also witnessing volatility, largely influenced by the banking sector’s performance and institutional activity. Here’s what to focus on:

Key Levels:
- Support at 48,500–48,800: This range has seen significant activity recently. However, a breach below 48,190 could open up further downside potential.
- Resistance at 49,070–49,700: As long as Bank Nifty stays below 49,070, rallies are likely to be sold into.
Shorting Trends:
Banking stocks saw increased shorting last week. However, some exceptions like ICICI Bank showed stability, with shorts being covered. Watch how the numbers unfold today to decide your approach.

What to Expect This Week

This being an expiry week, we’re likely to see the market produce a counter-trend move. While this could bring some relief, it’s important to remain cautious.

As long as Nifty50 remains below the key resistance levels (like 23,232), selling rallies could be the best strategy.
A mild pullback might emerge, but the overall trend remains weak unless stronger signals of buying activity appear.

In Conclusion

Today’s approach should be clear and cautious. Focus on short trades below the resistance levels, and be prepared for minor pullbacks. For Nifty Bank, pay attention to the 48,800–49,070 range, and adjust your trades based on how the market reacts.

Keep an eye on institutional activity and option writers’ behavior for additional clues. With proper planning, you can navigate the market effectively and make informed decisions this week.

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